3rd Quarter 2024
Market Watch
by Joe A. Hollingsworth, Jr.
Those of us that have been in real estate for half a century have seen the ebb and flow of different presidential administrations. Sometimes they are extreme; and, most of the time, they get mitigated by a unsupportive congress. At that point, the frustration of elected presidents starts taking over; and, executive actions are used and thus more and more less reflective of the “will of the people” (laws passed by Congress) and more reflective of the president’s personal agenda. That is where we find ourselves today! The president’s extreme personal agenda is driving variables that work against businesses’ need for certainty of outcome! The list of these executive actions have accumulated to the point that the US Supreme Court cannot adjudicate them in the normal court’s session, resulting now in more actions that will be taken that are blatant attempts to buy votes.
It is dangerous to be in the prediction business, but the “Trump Bump” that I foresee will be based on several key things:
- the immediate impoundment of all federal unspent funds that have been appropriated and budgeted for climate, DEI initiatives, infrastructuring, subsidizing; etc.;
- the reallocation of these impounded funds to higher and more productive uses in some cases (in other cases, they simply will be spent much later), resulting in less government caused inflation;
- the improvement to the previous “Trump tax plan” extended out a great number of years, thus setting the stage for Trump and the next Republican president to harvest the gains;
- the compilation of the above will greatly influence the Federal Reserve stated objective to kill inflation, because these actions will immediately stabilize a lot of inflation, thus the feds can lower the rates fairly substantially, and most importantly quickly;
- Correct the overreach that federal regulatory agencies have taken by assuming they have the power instead of waiting on Congress to give them the power, thus having some of the more onerous of those regulations overturned;
- the freedom to use all forms of energy – not only freeing up the tremendous value of the Permian Basin for the United States but also further empowering small nuclear reactors and simultaneously diminishing subsidies for other unworkable energy sources; and,
- the restoration of the work ethic by eliminating or streamlining the present overlapping subsidies and promoting work ideals.
Of course, we have to trust (but verify) that the laws are in place by state where conservatives can match liberals in their solicitation of votes. A fair election is paramount in producing an outcome that all Americans can support.
